Temporal trend monitoring: Introduction to the study of contaminant levels in marine biota.

Abstract

The study of contaminants in marine species, sediments, and sea water has been of interest to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) since the early 1970s. The investigation of temporal trends (changes over time in one area) in contaminant levels in fish and shellfish, both as monitors of their environment and from a human health concern, and in sediments and sea water is 3 topic currently being addressed by the ICES Working Group on the Statistical Aspects of Trend Monitoring (WGSATM). In this connection, the following two points should be noted: a) The design of a monitoring programme is a scientific effort, in which expertise in the fields of biology, environmental and analytical chemistry, statistics, and hydrography must be combined, utilizing specific information on the area to be monitored. It is not possible to give a simple blueprint for the design of these prograntrnes. Rather, each study must be specifically designed within the general strategies and guidelines such as those provided by the ICES Advisory Committee on Marine Pollution (ACMP) (ICES, 1989a,b). b) The objectives of the monitoring programme have to be defined qualitatively and quantitatively. Statistical model calculations based upon real estimates of the overall variance are a prerequisite to programme design, to give insight into the resolving power of the approach. In most cases, conduct of a "pilot project" will be necessary during the design of a programme.